Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:53 am at Detroit); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29%, against 17% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1230 at 20:05, 26%.

Nonstops today


DL 1230 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:05	MEM 21:01	26%	7%	0.3%	79%
DL 4007 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 16:00	MEM 17:02	31%	11%	0.2%	60%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DTW 10:25 → ORD 11:00AA 4103 · flown by Envoy	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 12:15 → MEM 14:04AA 3675 · flown by Envoy	4h 39m	98%	83%
American Details →	DTW 18:11 → ORD 18:58AA 3980 · flown by Envoy	3h 32m Chicago	ORD 22:30 → MEM 00:18 +1AA 3945 · flown by Envoy	7h 07m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	DTW 16:20 → MSP 17:12DL 2203	2h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest	6h 55m	99%	79%
American Details →	DTW 13:32 → ORD 13:52AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	1h 48m Chicago	ORD 15:40 → MEM 17:36AA 4647 · flown by Republic	5h 04m	93%	77%
Delta Details →	DTW 18:09 → ATL 20:19DL 2053	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 23:02 → MEM 23:29DL 8930	6h 20m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	DTW 15:59 → ATL 18:00DL 1467	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 21:49 → MEM 22:12DL 1577	7h 13m	99%	76%
United Details →	DTW 11:00 → ORD 11:29UA 426	1h 11m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → MEM 14:42UA 5414 · flown by SkyWest	4h 42m	90%	75%
United Details →	DTW 09:14 → EWR 11:07UA 3409 · flown by Republic	2h 22m Newark	EWR 13:29 → MEM 15:25UA 3650 · flown by Republic	7h 11m	98%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DTW 12:25 → ATL 14:20DL 2188	48m Atlanta	ATL 15:08 → MEM 15:30DL 1700	4h 05m	68%	47%
American Details →	DTW 16:26 → PHL 18:15AA 5427 · flown by PSA	50m Philadelphia	PHL 19:05 → MEM 21:00AA 5415 · flown by PSA	5h 34m	67%	41%
American Details →	DTW 19:51 → DFW 21:44AA 1786	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:31 → MEM 00:04 +1AA 1646	5h 13m	65%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON