Today: AA 1020 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–18%.

Safest bet today AA 1020 DTW 06:00 → MIA 09:06 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 866 DTW 15:59 → MIA 19:18 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1020 American Flight history →	DTW 06:00	MIA 09:06	7%	2%	0.2%	91%
DL 1468 Delta Flight history →	DTW 09:22	MIA 12:28	8%	3%	0.2%	86%
DL 2548 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:33	MIA 17:44	16%	4%	0.8%	73%
DL 866 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:59	MIA 19:18	18%	4%	0.8%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON