Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 16–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 1343 DTW 15:50 → MKE 16:02 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest DL 3675 DTW 17:41 → MKE 18:00 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1343 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:50	MKE 16:02	16%	6%	0.2%	80%
DL 3724 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 20:00	MKE 20:20	24%	11%	0.2%	64%
DL 3675 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 17:41	MKE 18:00	25%	14%	0.2%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON