Today: DL 2697 at 12:20 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–29%.

Safest bet today DL 2697 DTW 12:20 → MSP 13:10 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest OO 4200 DTW 20:02 → MSP 20:55 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 2697 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:20	MSP 13:10	17%	4%	0.1%	84%
DL 1842 Delta Flight history →	DTW 18:10	MSP 19:07	21%	7%	0.1%	73%
DL 1303 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:06	MSP 21:00	25%	9%	0.1%	65%
DL 8815 Delta	DTW 21:02	MSP 21:54	26%	8%	0.2%	no record
OO 4183 SkyWest	DTW 20:17	MSP 21:10	28%	10%	0.2%	no record
DL 2203 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:20	MSP 17:12	29%	7%	0.1%	76%
OO 4200 SkyWest	DTW 20:02	MSP 20:55	29%	10%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON