tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 1652 Delta Flight history → DTW 14:19 MSY 15:49 15% 3% 0.8% 86%
DL 2790 Delta Flight history → DTW 08:40 MSY 10:14 16% 4% 0.7% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258 2h 51m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695 7h 25m 99% 88%
SouthwestDetails → DTW 05:25 → DEN 06:30WN 1778 1h 30m Denver DEN 08:00 → MSY 11:45WN 1642 7h 20m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → DTW 11:00 → ORD 11:29UA 426 2h 36m Chicago ORD 14:05 → MSY 16:49UA 3658 · flown by Republic 6h 49m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → DTW 06:30 → BNA 07:05WN 4581 1h 11m Nashville BNA 08:16 → MSY 09:57WN 2457 4h 27m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → DTW 06:55 → STL 07:30WN 1783 1h 00m St Louis STL 08:30 → MSY 10:25WN 4105 4h 30m 95% 85%
UnitedDetails → DTW 05:30 → ORD 05:53UA 3483 · flown by Republic 1h 30m Chicago ORD 07:23 → MSY 09:51UA 2778 5h 21m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → DTW 07:05 → ORD 07:42UA 5553 · flown by SkyWest 3h 18m Chicago ORD 11:00 → MSY 13:31UA 1532 7h 26m 98% 84%
SouthwestDetails → DTW 05:50 → BWI 07:20WN 4534 55m Baltimore BWI 08:15 → MSY 10:13WN 4349 5h 23m 95% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → DTW 20:30 → MDW 20:40WN 1782 1h 00m Chicago MDW 21:40 → MSY 23:55WN 2836 4h 25m 70% 54%
FrontierDetails → DTW 11:49 → DFW 13:46F9 3177 1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:54 → MSY 16:58F9 4994 6h 09m 75% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON