tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:21 am at Detroit); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Philadelphia, leaving 11:27, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Myrtle Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DTW 11:27 → PHL 13:17AA 5480 · flown by PSA 3h 02m Philadelphia PHL 16:19 → MYR 18:20AA 5849 · flown by Piedmont 7h 00m 100% 78%
SouthwestDetails → DTW 13:25 → MDW 13:35WN 507 2h 45m Chicago MDW 16:20 → MYR 19:27WN 2089 6h 02m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → DTW 18:09 → ATL 20:19DL 2053 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → MYR 23:55DL 3074 5h 46m 95% 71%
DeltaDetails → DTW 12:25 → ATL 14:20DL 2188 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 17:48 → MYR 19:07DL 1093 6h 42m 98% 68%
AmericanDetails → DTW 15:52 → DFW 17:50AA 1793 1h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:28 → MYR 23:16AA 4019 · flown by Envoy 7h 24m 83% 58%
AmericanDetails → DTW 13:52 → CLT 15:45AA 1683 3h 07m Charlotte CLT 18:52 → MYR 20:03AA 2886 6h 11m 100% 57%
AmericanDetails → DTW 13:41 → CLT 15:35AA 1781 2h 57m Charlotte CLT 18:32 → MYR 19:42AA 1417 6h 01m 96% 55%
AmericanDetails → DTW 16:17 → CLT 18:17AA 1770 2h 55m Charlotte CLT 21:12 → MYR 22:17AA 1085 6h 00m 97% 54%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → DTW 17:45 → BWI 19:15WN 1526 46m Baltimore BWI 20:01 → MYR 21:42WN 330 3h 57m 69% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON