Today: DL 1621 at 14:30 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–33%.

Safest bet today DL 1621 DTW 14:30 → ORF 16:21 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest OO 3737 DTW 14:55 → ORF 16:07 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 1621 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:30	ORF 16:21	18%	6%	0.2%	77%
DL 412 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:40	ORF 23:32	20%	10%	0.2%	64%
OO 3737 SkyWest	DTW 14:55	ORF 16:07	33%	12%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON