tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:09 am at Detroit)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:25, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2171 Delta Flight history → DTW 08:54 PDX 10:36 11% 2% 0.2% 89%
DL 913 Delta Flight history → DTW 20:04 PDX 21:48 16% 5% 0.7% 60%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DTW 05:30 → ORD 05:53UA 3483 · flown by Republic 3h 07m Chicago ORD 09:00 → PDX 11:38UA 1994 9h 08m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → DTW 12:20 → MSP 13:10DL 2697 2h 48m Minneapolis MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008 8h 15m 98% 88%
SouthwestDetails → DTW 05:25 → DEN 06:30WN 1778 2h 01m Denver DEN 08:31 → PDX 10:14WN 3459 7h 49m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746 3h 06m Minneapolis MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:37DL 1661 8h 36m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → DTW 18:10 → MSP 19:07DL 1842 2h 31m Minneapolis MSP 21:38 → PDX 23:18DL 2391 8h 08m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → DTW 07:00 → SLC 08:53DL 3229 2h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 8h 10m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → DTW 08:56 → DEN 10:02UA 2302 3h 25m Denver DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455 9h 17m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → DTW 06:15 → IAH 08:11UA 1229 1h 19m Houston IAH 09:30 → PDX 11:56UA 740 8h 41m 100% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → DTW 17:31 → SEA 19:33AS 313 52m Seattle SEA 20:25 → PDX 21:22AS 2387 · flown by Horizon 6h 51m 72% 59%
UnitedDetails → DTW 18:20 → ORD 18:57UA 5264 · flown by SkyWest 58m Chicago ORD 19:55 → PDX 22:30UA 2738 7h 10m 66% 54%
SouthwestDetails → DTW 20:30 → MDW 20:40WN 1782 55m Chicago MDW 21:35 → PDX 23:55WN 2852 6h 25m 64% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON