Today: DL 2968 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–17%.

Safest bet today DL 2968 DTW 07:05 → PHL 08:41 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 2022 DTW 13:50 → PHL 15:29 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2968 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	PHL 08:41	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
AA 5414 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DTW 06:03	PHL 07:56	8%	5%	1.5%	100%
AA 5170 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DTW 06:10	PHL 07:56	9%	4%	1.6%	88%
DL 2402 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:35	PHL 23:16	12%	4%	0.7%	81%
OH 5367 PSA	DTW 19:24	PHL 21:17	13%	8%	0.9%	no record
OH 5235 PSA	DTW 15:38	PHL 17:31	13%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 5167 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DTW 19:17	PHL 21:02	14%	7%	1.0%	75%
DL 1391 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:00	PHL 16:43	16%	4%	0.7%	71%
DL 1686 Delta Flight history →	DTW 17:40	PHL 19:25	16%	4%	0.7%	72%
AA 5427 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DTW 16:26	PHL 18:15	17%	9%	0.9%	48%
DL 2331 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:10	PHL 11:46	17%	4%	0.6%	89%
AA 5480 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DTW 11:27	PHL 13:17	21%	11%	2.4%	82%
AA 5610 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DTW 10:53	PHL 12:37	26%	12%	2.2%	81%
F9 2022 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 13:50	PHL 15:29	42%	30%	1.4%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON