Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 14–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 3961 DTW 10:05 → PVD 12:03 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest OO 3720 DTW 14:08 → PVD 16:03 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3961 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 10:05	PVD 12:03	14%	7%	0.3%	81%
DL 3795 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 21:30	PVD 23:36	15%	4%	0.6%	77%
DL 4040 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 14:15	PVD 16:13	16%	5%	0.6%	74%
DL 3723 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 10:23	PVD 12:18	16%	8%	0.3%	69%
OO 3720 SkyWest	DTW 14:08	PVD 16:03	18%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON