Today: DL 2164 at 10:15 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–22%.

Safest bet today DL 2164 DTW 10:15 → RDU 11:57 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 2640 DTW 18:47 → RDU 20:43 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 2164 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:15	RDU 11:57	10%	3%	0.2%	89%
DL 2839 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:40	RDU 23:25	12%	4%	0.7%	75%
DL 1407 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:02	RDU 17:47	20%	4%	0.2%	84%
F9 2640 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 18:47	RDU 20:43	22%	13%	1.0%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON