Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:12 pm at Detroit); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, 9E 5038 at 21:45, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


9E 5038 Endeavor	DTW 21:45	RIC 23:25	13%	4%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 19:35 → ATL 21:44DL 2045	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 23:08 → RIC 00:49 +1DL 1175	5h 14m	92%	74%
American Details →	DTW 19:58 → CLT 21:55AA 1794	54m Charlotte	CLT 22:49 → RIC 00:04 +1AA 1882	4h 06m	77%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON