Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 28%, against 17% on a calm day. Safest: DL 492 at 08:45, 16%.

Safest bet today DL 492 DTW 08:45 → SAN 10:27 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest DL 369 DTW 16:35 → SAN 18:14 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Weather 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 492 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:45	SAN 10:27	16%	4%	0.3%	83%
DL 700 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:23	SAN 22:01	25%	3%	0.7%	64%
DL 761 Delta	DTW 12:34	SAN 14:19	31%	8%	0.2%	no record
DL 2155 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:30	SAN 14:09	32%	8%	0.2%	76%
DL 369 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:35	SAN 18:14	37%	9%	0.3%	74%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	DTW 08:56 → DEN 10:02UA 2302	1h 13m Denver	DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940	6h 45m	89%	66%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:25 → SLC 10:21DL 698	49m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296	6h 43m	77%	61%
American Details →	DTW 08:22 → PHX 09:04AA 839	1h 26m Phoenix	PHX 10:30 → SAN 11:47AA 2477	6h 25m	85%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON