tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:53 am at Detroit); 5 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Today: DL 565 at 20:34 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–33%.

Safest bet today DL 565 DTW 20:34 → SEA 22:33 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time Riskiest AS 313 DTW 17:31 → SEA 19:33 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time
Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.
DL 565 Delta Flight history → DTW 20:34 SEA 22:33 20% 4% 0.6% 64%
DL 728 Delta Flight history → DTW 12:29 SEA 14:29 22% 4% 0.1% 78%
DL 944 Delta Flight history → DTW 16:46 SEA 18:42 26% 6% 0.1% 72%
AS 313 Alaska Flight history → DTW 17:31 SEA 19:33 33% 6% 0.3% 73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258 1h 16m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889 7h 00m 94% 83%
DeltaDetails → DTW 20:06 → MSP 21:00DL 1303 1h 08m Minneapolis MSP 22:08 → SEA 23:58DL 505 6h 52m 83% 72%
SouthwestDetails → DTW 20:30 → MDW 20:40WN 1782 1h 20m Chicago MDW 22:00 → SEA 00:35 +1WN 4144 7h 05m 90% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON