tailodds FORECAST
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Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:38 am at Detroit)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Today: UA 1550 at 06:34 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–22%.

Safest bet today UA 1550 DTW 06:34 → SFO 08:40 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time Riskiest UA 1118 DTW 19:36 → SFO 21:49 · 22% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 1550 United Flight history → DTW 06:34 SFO 08:40 12% 3% 0.2% 61%
DL 361 Delta Flight history → DTW 08:30 SFO 10:27 14% 3% 0.2% 75%
DL 469 Delta Flight history → DTW 12:15 SFO 14:17 18% 5% 0.2% 70%
UA 1863 United Flight history → DTW 17:29 SFO 19:40 19% 5% 0.6% 61%
DL 509 Delta Flight history → DTW 18:55 SFO 20:55 19% 5% 0.7% 55%
DL 335 Delta DTW 19:55 SFO 21:57 19% 6% 0.7% no record
DL 442 Delta Flight history → DTW 16:17 SFO 18:14 21% 6% 0.2% 69%
DL 1327 Delta Flight history → DTW 20:37 SFO 22:35 22% 6% 0.7% 59%
UA 1118 United DTW 19:36 SFO 21:49 22% 6% 0.6% no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
SouthwestDetails → DTW 06:55 → STL 07:30WN 1783 1h 00m St Louis STL 08:30 → SFO 10:49WN 4931 6h 54m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258 1h 06m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 7h 09m 93% 78%
SouthwestDetails → DTW 08:40 → MDW 08:55WN 1781 1h 10m Chicago MDW 10:05 → SFO 12:35WN 1546 6h 55m 95% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON