tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3229 DTW 07:00 → SLC 08:53 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest DL 2117 DTW 20:20 → SLC 22:15 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time
Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
DL 3229 Delta Flight history → DTW 07:00 SLC 08:53 7% 2% 0.1% 86%
DL 935 Delta Flight history → DTW 12:20 SLC 14:11 10% 3% 0.6% 88%
DL 698 Delta Flight history → DTW 08:25 SLC 10:21 11% 3% 0.1% 89%
DL 765 Delta Flight history → DTW 17:40 SLC 19:34 15% 4% 0.6% 78%
DL 2117 Delta Flight history → DTW 20:20 SLC 22:15 15% 4% 0.6% 64%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
SouthwestDetails → DTW 08:40 → MDW 08:55WN 1781 1h 05m Chicago MDW 10:00 → SLC 12:25WN 2951 5h 45m 94% 84%
DeltaDetails → DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113 57m Denver DEN 10:44 → SLC 12:15DL 1317 5h 35m 86% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON