tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:44 pm at Detroit); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via O'Hare, leaving 16:29, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 47% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DTW 16:29 → ORD 16:59UA 4673 · flown by SkyWest 2h 46m Chicago ORD 19:45 → SNA 22:19UA 308 8h 50m 91% 75%
DeltaDetails → DTW 17:40 → SLC 19:34DL 765 1h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 21:05 → SNA 22:00DL 1304 7h 20m 90% 74%
AmericanDetails → DTW 13:53 → ORD 13:43AA 3977 · flown by Envoy 3h 22m Chicago ORD 17:05 → SNA 19:27AA 519 8h 34m 100% 73%
UnitedDetails → DTW 15:32 → DEN 16:45UA 302 3h 47m Denver DEN 20:32 → SNA 22:01UA 725 9h 29m 98% 71%
AmericanDetails → DTW 17:57 → PHX 19:08AA 1790 1h 59m Phoenix PHX 21:07 → SNA 22:26AA 2637 7h 29m 100% 70%
AmericanDetails → DTW 14:05 → CLT 15:27AA 1683 2h 33m Charlotte CLT 18:00 → SNA 20:06AA 358 9h 01m 100% 67%
SouthwestDetails → DTW 16:00 → DEN 17:05WN 4450 3h 29m Denver DEN 20:34 → SNA 21:59WN 138 8h 59m 97% 66%
UnitedDetails → DTW 14:10 → ORD 14:47UA 5381 · flown by SkyWest 1h 33m Chicago ORD 16:20 → SNA 18:52UA 1107 7h 42m 84% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DTW 18:20 → ORD 18:57UA 5264 · flown by SkyWest 48m Chicago ORD 19:45 → SNA 22:19UA 308 6h 59m 47% 39%
DeltaDetails → DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944 53m Seattle SEA 19:35 → SNA 22:30DL 3932 · flown by SkyWest 8h 44m 59% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON