Today: DL 2852 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–23%.

Safest bet today DL 2852 DTW 07:00 → TPA 09:36 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest F9 1036 DTW 11:25 → TPA 14:24 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2852 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:00	TPA 09:36	7%	3%	0.5%	87%
DL 1243 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:07	TPA 16:45	13%	4%	0.9%	83%
DL 2587 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:15	TPA 12:50	17%	4%	0.6%	79%
DL 1355 Delta Flight history →	DTW 19:59	TPA 22:35	19%	6%	1.0%	77%
F9 1036 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 11:25	TPA 14:24	23%	17%	1.0%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON