Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 19–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 2424 DTW 22:59 → TVC 00:08 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest DL 3965 DTW 16:02 → TVC 17:15 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2424 Delta Flight history →	DTW 22:59	TVC 00:08	19%	5%	0.7%	77%
DL 3976 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 12:15	TVC 13:27	23%	8%	0.3%	68%
DL 3965 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 16:02	TVC 17:15	25%	8%	0.3%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON