Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 23%, against 13% on a calm day. Safest: DL 3114 at 06:00, 14%.

Safest bet today DL 3114 ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 3053 ECP 18:48 → ATL 21:07 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Weather 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3114 Delta Flight history →	ECP 06:00	ATL 08:13	14%	4%	1.1%	91%
DL 1359 Delta Flight history →	ECP 13:36	ATL 15:50	19%	10%	0.9%	84%
DL 1674 Delta Flight history →	ECP 07:50	ATL 10:00	20%	4%	1.0%	92%worse than usual
DL 3048 Delta Flight history →	ECP 09:12	ATL 11:20	21%	5%	1.0%	90%worse than usual
DL 3045 Delta Flight history →	ECP 11:38	ATL 13:51	24%	9%	0.8%	87%worse than usual
DL 2823 Delta Flight history →	ECP 14:47	ATL 17:00	26%	9%	1.0%	67%
DL 3094 Delta Flight history →	ECP 17:03	ATL 19:21	27%	9%	1.6%	83%
DL 3053 Delta Flight history →	ECP 18:48	ATL 21:07	37%	10%	1.3%	75%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON