Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Today: WN 1663 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–26%.

Safest bet today WN 1663 ECP 07:15 → BNA 08:52 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 554 ECP 18:20 → BNA 19:45 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1663 Southwest	ECP 07:15	BNA 08:52	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1785 Southwest Flight history →	ECP 07:50	BNA 09:15	11%	3%	0.6%	95%
WN 311 Southwest Flight history →	ECP 10:52	BNA 12:29	13%	3%	1.2%	80%
WN 3032 Southwest Flight history →	ECP 12:00	BNA 13:25	18%	4%	1.2%	52%
WN 2257 Southwest	ECP 18:00	BNA 19:38	24%	6%	1.0%	no record
WN 554 Southwest Flight history →	ECP 18:20	BNA 19:45	26%	6%	1.0%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON