Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:08 pm at Panama City Beach); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today: AA 4534 at 15:17 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–31%.

Safest bet today AA 4534 ECP 15:17 → ORD 18:19 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest UA 5654 ECP 14:05 → ORD 16:50 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 4534 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ECP 15:17	ORD 18:19	15%	6%	0.7%	81%
YX 3497 Republic	ECP 14:11	ORD 16:59	17%	7%	0.8%	no record
UA 5654 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ECP 14:05	ORD 16:50	31%	9%	1.3%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON