tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 22% (calm day: 11%). Best bet: Southwest via Love Field, leaving 07:20, 43% on time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
DL 1741 Delta Flight history → ELP 06:00 ATL 11:10 7% 3% 0.7% 92%
DL 1002 Delta Flight history → ELP 14:25 ATL 19:42 19% 3% 0.8% 85%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 2 h ahead of El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ELP 05:20 → DEN 07:05WN 3706 1h 25m Denver DEN 08:30 → ATL 13:33WN 2713 6h 13m 100% 86%
SouthwestDetails → ELP 06:10 → LAS 06:55WN 3958 1h 30m Las Vegas LAS 08:25 → ATL 15:25WN 4482 7h 15m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → ELP 08:00 → ORD 12:27UA 5659 · flown by SkyWest 1h 28m Chicago ORD 13:55 → ATL 17:10UA 356 7h 10m 94% 78%
UnitedDetails → ELP 05:45 → IAH 08:46UA 6303 · flown by Mesa 3h 09m Houston IAH 11:55 → ATL 15:16UA 4079 · flown by Mesa 7h 31m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → ELP 07:34 → ORD 11:37AA 4006 · flown by Envoy 3h 30m Chicago ORD 15:07 → ATL 18:17AA 3033 8h 43m 100% 77%
UnitedDetails → ELP 07:00 → DEN 08:53UA 724 1h 15m Denver DEN 10:08 → ATL 15:17UA 2806 6h 17m 92% 76%
AmericanDetails → ELP 06:49 → ORD 11:10AA 3872 · flown by Envoy 1h 54m Chicago ORD 13:04 → ATL 16:11AA 1138 7h 22m 100% 76%
SouthwestDetails → ELP 05:45 → HOU 08:40WN 4702 1h 25m Houston HOU 10:05 → ATL 13:14WN 244 5h 29m 98% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ELP 12:07 → DFW 15:02AA 2210 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:04 → ATL 19:23AA 2403 5h 16m 69% 45%
SouthwestDetails → ELP 07:20 → DAL 10:05WN 4741 49m Dallas DAL 10:54 → ATL 14:03WN 199 4h 43m 69% 43%
AmericanDetails → ELP 13:41 → DFW 16:33AA 3506 · flown by Envoy 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:23 → ATL 20:43AA 3212 5h 02m 61% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON