Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Today: WN 675 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–26%.

Safest bet today WN 675 ELP 05:10 → AUS 07:56 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1793 ELP 21:40 → AUS 00:20 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 675 Southwest	ELP 05:10	AUS 07:56	5%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 1791 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 05:10	AUS 07:45	6%	2%	0.4%	91%
WN 3423 Southwest	ELP 07:50	AUS 10:36	14%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 4856 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 12:20	AUS 14:55	19%	5%	0.5%	68%
WN 294 Southwest	ELP 14:35	AUS 17:20	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3443 Southwest	ELP 18:40	AUS 21:25	25%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 1793 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 21:40	AUS 00:20	26%	9%	0.5%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON