Today: WN 4332 at 09:05 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–31%.

Safest bet today WN 4332 ELP 09:05 → DEN 10:55 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest WN 1798 ELP 16:30 → DEN 18:20 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 26% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 4332 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 09:05	DEN 10:55	10%	1%	0.1%	82%
WN 4266 Southwest	ELP 15:45	DEN 17:38	21%	4%	0.1%	no record
UA 1728 United Flight history →	ELP 14:32	DEN 16:38	23%	6%	0.1%	79%
F9 4418 Frontier Flight history →	ELP 18:59	DEN 21:00	26%	9%	0.6%	77%
WN 1798 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 16:30	DEN 18:20	31%	4%	0.1%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON