Today: AA 3272 at 08:03 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–39%.

Safest bet today AA 3272 ELP 08:03 → DFW 11:00 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1802 ELP 16:19 → DFW 19:15 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3272 American	ELP 08:03	DFW 11:00	18%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 3506 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ELP 13:41	DFW 16:33	19%	4%	0.4%	81%
AA 1801 American Flight history →	ELP 10:04	DFW 12:54	21%	7%	0.6%	82%
AA 1365 American Flight history →	ELP 10:03	DFW 12:56	21%	7%	0.6%	78%
AA 3504 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ELP 17:32	DFW 20:27	25%	6%	0.4%	68%
AA 2210 American Flight history →	ELP 12:07	DFW 15:02	26%	8%	0.6%	63%
AA 1658 American	ELP 12:32	DFW 15:26	26%	8%	0.6%	no record
OO 4967 SkyWest	ELP 14:25	DFW 17:18	31%	9%	0.2%	no record
AA 690 American	ELP 17:40	DFW 20:35	37%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 2418 American	ELP 16:18	DFW 19:11	37%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 1802 American Flight history →	ELP 16:19	DFW 19:15	39%	10%	0.6%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON