Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:09 pm at El Paso); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 22–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 2992 Southwest	ELP 16:45	HOU 19:46	22%	9%	0.2%	no record
WN 3320 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 16:40	HOU 19:45	23%	9%	0.2%	49%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h ahead of El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ELP 13:41 → DFW 16:33AA 3506 · flown by Envoy	1h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:28 → HOU 20:06AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	5h 25m	94%	75%
Southwest Details →	ELP 14:30 → DAL 17:20WN 1269	2h 40m Dallas	DAL 20:00 → HOU 21:20WN 55	5h 50m	98%	69%
Southwest Details →	ELP 12:20 → AUS 14:55WN 4856	3h 50m Austin	AUS 18:45 → HOU 19:45WN 4255	6h 25m	100%	62%
American Details →	ELP 16:19 → DFW 19:15AA 1802	3h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:38 → HOU 23:56AA 5465 · flown by PSA	6h 37m	93%	60%
Southwest Details →	ELP 16:25 → PHX 16:45WN 4823	2h 35m Phoenix	PHX 19:20 → HOU 23:55WN 4315	6h 30m	100%	58%
Southwest Details →	ELP 16:30 → DEN 18:20WN 1798	2h 05m Denver	DEN 20:25 → HOU 23:55WN 2026	6h 25m	94%	58%
Delta Details →	ELP 14:25 → ATL 19:42DL 1002	1h 03m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	6h 26m	84%	52%
Southwest Details →	ELP 18:15 → DAL 21:05WN 1795	55m Dallas	DAL 22:00 → HOU 23:15WN 63	4h 00m	75%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON