Today: WN 4425 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–26%.

Safest bet today WN 4425 ELP 07:00 → LAS 07:54 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1967 ELP 20:35 → LAS 21:29 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


WN 4425 Southwest	ELP 07:00	LAS 07:54	5%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 4335 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 11:10	LAS 12:00	13%	2%	0.1%	79%
WN 263 Southwest	ELP 12:20	LAS 13:13	16%	2%	0.1%	no record
F9 3449 Frontier Flight history →	ELP 20:14	LAS 21:08	24%	13%	0.9%	74%
WN 1808 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 19:45	LAS 20:30	26%	8%	0.5%	68%
WN 1967 Southwest	ELP 20:35	LAS 21:29	26%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON