Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Today: WN 1826 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–25%.

Safest bet today WN 1826 ELP 06:00 → SAT 08:30 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 296 ELP 22:25 → SAT 00:55 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1826 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 06:00	SAT 08:30	4%	1%	0.2%	98%
WN 1892 Southwest	ELP 09:20	SAT 12:00	9%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 1383 Southwest	ELP 21:10	SAT 23:50	23%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 296 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 22:25	SAT 00:55	25%	6%	0.5%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON