Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:30 pm at El Paso)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 56%, against 24% on a calm day. Safest: QX 2417 at 19:01, 56%.

Nonstops today


QX 2417 Horizon	ELP 19:01	SEA 21:36	56%	13%	1.3%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 1 h behind El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ELP 14:25 → ATL 19:42DL 1002	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → SEA 23:59DL 903	10h 34m	92%	59%
United Details →	ELP 14:32 → DEN 16:38UA 1728	2h 42m Denver	DEN 19:20 → SEA 21:27UA 2767	7h 55m	96%	54%
Southwest Details →	ELP 19:45 → LAS 20:30WN 1808	1h 40m Las Vegas	LAS 22:10 → SEA 00:55 +1WN 963	6h 10m	91%	51%
American Details →	ELP 16:19 → DFW 19:15AA 1802	3h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:41 → SEA 00:57 +1AA 1487	9h 38m	95%	45%
Southwest Details →	ELP 16:30 → DEN 18:20WN 1798	2h 50m Denver	DEN 21:10 → SEA 23:10WN 3856	7h 40m	96%	42%
American Details →	ELP 13:41 → DFW 16:33AA 3506 · flown by Envoy	3h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:13 → SEA 22:26AA 2003	9h 45m	100%	42%
Southwest Details →	ELP 16:25 → PHX 16:45WN 4823	1h 50m Phoenix	PHX 18:35 → SEA 21:30WN 3585	6h 05m	93%	31%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ELP 13:41 → DFW 16:33AA 3506 · flown by Envoy	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:24 → SEA 19:32AA 1483	6h 51m	69%	29%
American Details →	ELP 16:19 → DFW 19:15AA 1802	58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:13 → SEA 22:26AA 2003	7h 07m	62%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON