Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Today: WN 436 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–33%.

Safest bet today WN 436 EUG 06:10 → DEN 09:48 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2843 EUG 14:45 → DEN 18:15 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 436 Southwest	EUG 06:10	DEN 09:48	4%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 1828 Southwest Flight history →	EUG 06:10	DEN 09:40	4%	2%	0.2%	94%
UA 1241 United Flight history →	EUG 05:00	DEN 08:37	6%	4%	0.2%	94%
UA 1220 United	EUG 12:48	DEN 16:44	22%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 2618 Southwest	EUG 14:30	DEN 18:07	27%	6%	0.5%	no record
UA 1942 United Flight history →	EUG 13:07	DEN 16:43	27%	9%	0.7%	76%
WN 2843 Southwest Flight history →	EUG 14:45	DEN 18:15	33%	6%	0.5%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON