Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:31 am at Eugene)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 29–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 4561 Southwest	EUG 16:05	LAS 18:10	29%	10%	0.2%	no record
WN 4267 Southwest Flight history →	EUG 16:55	LAS 18:55	30%	10%	0.2%	27%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	EUG 14:45 → DEN 18:15WN 2843	3h 40m Denver	DEN 21:55 → LAS 22:55WN 1567	8h 10m	100%	81%
Alaska Details →	EUG 09:45 → SEA 10:53AS 2073 · flown by Horizon	2h 45m Seattle	SEA 13:38 → LAS 16:06AS 728	6h 21m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	EUG 17:45 → SEA 19:04DL 4124 · flown by SkyWest	1h 30m Seattle	SEA 20:34 → LAS 23:10DL 2949	5h 25m	89%	70%
Alaska Details →	EUG 12:34 → PDX 13:26AS 3062 · flown by SkyWest	1h 20m Portland	PDX 14:46 → LAS 17:06AS 778	4h 32m	83%	69%
United Details →	EUG 13:59 → SFO 15:35UA 2077	2h 02m San Francisco	SFO 17:37 → LAS 19:27UA 751	5h 28m	93%	68%
Delta Details →	EUG 12:32 → SEA 13:58DL 4139 · flown by SkyWest	2h 27m Seattle	SEA 16:25 → LAS 19:00DL 2955	6h 28m	93%	68%
Alaska Details →	EUG 17:43 → SEA 18:52AS 2339 · flown by Horizon	1h 23m Seattle	SEA 20:15 → LAS 22:55AS 704	5h 12m	89%	64%
United Details →	EUG 13:07 → DEN 16:43UA 1942	3h 12m Denver	DEN 19:55 → LAS 21:08UA 1953	8h 01m	96%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	EUG 13:07 → DEN 16:43UA 1942	1h 03m Denver	DEN 17:46 → LAS 18:50UA 2338	5h 43m	73%	47%
Alaska Details →	EUG 13:38 → SEA 14:55AS 3360 · flown by SkyWest	1h 24m Seattle	SEA 16:19 → LAS 18:54AS 1456	5h 16m	70%	45%
American Details →	EUG 13:39 → PHX 16:16AA 4114 · flown by Envoy	51m Phoenix	PHX 17:07 → LAS 18:22AA 1565	4h 43m	73%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON