Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 20–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AS 3324 EUG 08:18 → LAX 10:45 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest OO 3058 EUG 12:58 → LAX 15:17 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 3324 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	EUG 08:18	LAX 10:45	20%	11%	0.8%	92%worse than usual
OO 3338 SkyWest	EUG 08:32	LAX 10:53	21%	11%	0.8%	no record
OO 3058 SkyWest	EUG 12:58	LAX 15:17	24%	8%	0.4%	no record
AS 2323 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	EUG 12:55	LAX 15:11	21%	4%	0.0%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON