Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 3040 EUG 05:20 → PDX 06:21 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 3041 EUG 16:00 → PDX 16:51 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 3040 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	EUG 05:20	PDX 06:21	7%	2%	0.4%	94%
OO 3006 SkyWest	EUG 12:45	PDX 13:46	13%	6%	0.7%	no record
OO 3042 SkyWest	EUG 16:04	PDX 17:05	14%	6%	0.7%	no record
AS 3062 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	EUG 12:34	PDX 13:26	15%	6%	0.7%	91%
AS 3041 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	EUG 16:00	PDX 16:51	16%	6%	0.7%	87%
AS 2053 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	EUG 05:20	PDX 06:06	2%	2%	0.0%	98%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON