Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:01 pm at Eugene); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 4662 at 18:49, with a 37% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 4662 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	EUG 18:49	SFO 20:35	37%	14%	0.8%	25%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EUG 17:45 → SEA 19:04DL 4124 · flown by SkyWest	2h 35m Seattle	SEA 21:39 → SFO 23:59DL 2635	6h 14m	97%	61%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	EUG 19:20 → SEA 20:35AS 3048 · flown by SkyWest	59m Seattle	SEA 21:34 → SFO 23:40AS 410	4h 20m	66%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON