tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: WN 3995 at 11:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3995 Southwest EUG 11:00 SJC 12:43 8% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 1839 Southwest Flight history → EUG 18:40 SJC 20:15 19% 6% 0.6% 76%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → EUG 05:20 → PDX 06:06AS 2053 · flown by Horizon 1h 09m Portland PDX 07:15 → SJC 09:09AS 2080 · flown by Horizon 3h 49m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → EUG 06:00 → SLC 08:53DL 3708 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 6h 35m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → EUG 16:43 → SLC 19:41DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest 3h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → SJC 23:39DL 1272 6h 56m 100% 84%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 09:45 → SEA 10:53AS 2073 · flown by Horizon 2h 47m Seattle SEA 13:40 → SJC 15:53AS 521 6h 08m 100% 80%
SouthwestDetails → EUG 16:55 → LAS 18:55WN 4267 3h 00m Las Vegas LAS 21:55 → SJC 23:30WN 660 6h 35m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → EUG 06:30 → PHX 09:09AA 4048 · flown by Envoy 1h 01m Phoenix PHX 10:10 → SJC 12:24AA 2631 5h 54m 91% 76%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 06:00 → SEA 07:08AS 2046 · flown by Horizon 3h 49m Seattle SEA 10:57 → SJC 13:10AS 658 7h 10m 100% 76%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 17:43 → SEA 18:52AS 2339 · flown by Horizon 1h 56m Seattle SEA 20:48 → SJC 22:58AS 403 5h 15m 97% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → EUG 10:15 → SAN 12:40WN 1838 50m San Diego SAN 13:30 → SJC 15:00WN 3538 4h 45m 63% 46%
DeltaDetails → EUG 12:32 → SEA 13:58DL 4139 · flown by SkyWest 47m Seattle SEA 14:45 → SJC 17:05DL 3897 · flown by SkyWest 4h 33m 24% 20%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 13:38 → SEA 14:55AS 3360 · flown by SkyWest 47m Seattle SEA 15:42 → SJC 17:53AS 319 4h 15m 10% 7%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON