Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 43%, against 30% on a calm day. Safest: UA 1155 at 12:20, 29%.

Safest bet today UA 1155 EWR 12:20 → AUS 15:16 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 2213 EWR 17:11 → AUS 20:26 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Weather 43% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1155 United Flight history →	EWR 12:20	AUS 15:16	29%	11%	0.4%	85%worse than usual
UA 2289 United Flight history →	EWR 15:10	AUS 18:11	45%	13%	0.5%	78%worse than usual
UA 1032 United	EWR 18:50	AUS 21:59	47%	15%	0.5%	no record
UA 1409 United	EWR 20:53	AUS 23:57	48%	20%	0.5%	no record
UA 2213 United	EWR 17:11	AUS 20:26	48%	19%	0.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	EWR 12:50 → DFW 15:07AA 1796	58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:05 → AUS 17:18AA 1146	5h 28m	77%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON