Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1428 at 06:52 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33%.

Safest bet that day UA 1428 EWR 06:52 → BNA 08:16 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 695 EWR 14:47 → BNA 16:14 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1428 United Flight history →	EWR 06:52	BNA 08:16	12%	3%	0.4%	89%
UA 2776 United	EWR 10:39	BNA 12:05	21%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 1616 United Flight history →	EWR 10:55	BNA 12:18	22%	6%	0.7%	77%
UA 1884 United Flight history →	EWR 13:08	BNA 14:39	27%	9%	0.8%	65%
UA 2454 United Flight history →	EWR 16:05	BNA 17:46	33%	13%	0.8%	67%
YX 3454 Republic	EWR 19:27	BNA 21:00	33%	8%	0.9%	no record
UA 1261 United Flight history →	EWR 21:28	BNA 23:02	33%	14%	0.9%	71%
UA 1608 United Flight history →	EWR 15:00	BNA 16:32	33%	11%	0.8%	72%
UA 695 United	EWR 14:47	BNA 16:14	37%	11%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON