Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 65%, against 46% on a calm day. Safest: UA 1117 at 21:33, 63%.

Safest bet today UA 1117 EWR 21:33 → BOS 22:59 · 63% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2058 EWR 20:25 → BOS 21:53 · 67% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Weather 65% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 46% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 11 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1117 United	EWR 21:33	BOS 22:59	63%	30%	0.5%	no record
DL 5718 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 20:40	BOS 22:18	65%	30%	1.2%	67%worse than usual
UA 2058 United Flight history →	EWR 20:25	BOS 21:53	67%	34%	0.5%	61%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON