Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:31 pm at Newark)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 4419 at 14:59, with a 36% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 4419 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	EWR 14:59	CHA 17:17	36%	22%	1.0%	70%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chattanooga on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 16:29 → ATL 19:14DL 2322	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → CHA 23:55DL 1059	7h 26m	96%	74%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → CHA 22:13DL 1366	6h 52m	94%	72%
Delta Details →	EWR 16:50 → DTW 18:51DL 2573	2h 00m Detroit	DTW 20:51 → CHA 22:38DL 4894 · flown by Endeavor	5h 48m	81%	68%
American Details →	EWR 14:52 → CLT 16:18AA 1697	1h 53m Charlotte	CLT 18:11 → CHA 19:25AA 5964 · flown by Piedmont	4h 33m	88%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	EWR 19:06 → ATL 21:33DL 2340	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → CHA 23:55DL 1059	4h 49m	70%	54%
Delta Details →	EWR 18:59 → ATL 21:54DL 2430	58m Atlanta	ATL 22:52 → CHA 23:50DL 1904	4h 51m	56%	42%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312	46m Atlanta	ATL 18:40 → CHA 19:33DL 3150	4h 12m	52%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON