Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 30%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2355 at 06:45, 16%.

Safest bet today UA 2355 EWR 06:45 → CHS 08:51 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 2796 EWR 21:44 → CHS 23:52 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Weather 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2355 United Flight history →	EWR 06:45	CHS 08:51	16%	4%	0.7%	93%
YX 3655 Republic	EWR 16:47	CHS 19:12	26%	11%	3.6%	no record
UA 1760 United Flight history →	EWR 12:10	CHS 14:16	35%	8%	0.7%	80%worse than usual
UA 2796 United Flight history →	EWR 21:44	CHS 23:52	41%	13%	2.1%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON