Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 26%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: UA 3641 at 08:45, 12%.

Safest bet today UA 3641 EWR 08:45 → CMH 10:40 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 3481 EWR 18:55 → CMH 20:57 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Weather 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3641 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 08:45	CMH 10:40	12%	3%	0.5%	88%
UA 3638 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 10:38	CMH 12:33	24%	3%	0.6%	89%worse than usual
UA 3692 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 20:48	CMH 22:52	25%	8%	1.0%	79%
UA 3492 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 14:15	CMH 16:10	27%	6%	0.7%	87%worse than usual
UA 2057 United	EWR 14:08	CMH 15:53	28%	10%	0.6%	no record
UA 3545 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 17:57	CMH 19:59	30%	9%	0.9%	79%
UA 3481 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 18:55	CMH 20:57	33%	9%	1.2%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON