Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Dallas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115	6h 24m	94%	73%
Delta Details →	EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	7h 33m	95%	73%
Delta Details →	EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	8h 23m	99%	71%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	8h 04m	96%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673	55m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115	5h 19m	75%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON