Today: UA 2120 at 14:40 is the safest bet, 33% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 43–46%.

Safest bet today UA 2120 EWR 14:40 → DEN 16:58 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest UA 407 EWR 18:49 → DEN 21:18 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 39% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2120 United Flight history →	EWR 14:40	DEN 16:58	33%	11%	0.2%	80%worse than usual
UA 2444 United	EWR 14:46	DEN 17:07	35%	10%	0.2%	no record
UA 663 United Flight history →	EWR 15:41	DEN 18:23	35%	10%	0.2%	63%
UA 1729 United	EWR 15:40	DEN 17:56	36%	10%	0.2%	no record
UA 1792 United Flight history →	EWR 20:59	DEN 23:28	43%	11%	0.2%	72%worse than usual
UA 1197 United Flight history →	EWR 17:12	DEN 19:45	46%	12%	0.3%	71%worse than usual
UA 407 United Flight history →	EWR 18:49	DEN 21:18	46%	13%	0.3%	69%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 14:15 → CMH 16:10UA 3492 · flown by Republic	1h 00m Columbus	CMH 17:10 → DEN 18:20UA 1389	6h 05m	75%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON