Today: UA 3700 at 08:46 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–37%.

Safest bet today UA 3700 EWR 08:46 → DTW 10:50 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 1637 EWR 16:32 → DTW 18:22 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 3700 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 08:46	DTW 10:50	11%	2%	0.2%	88%
YX 3633 Republic	EWR 10:27	DTW 12:34	16%	3%	0.2%	no record
DL 2566 Delta Flight history →	EWR 09:55	DTW 11:43	16%	4%	0.2%	84%
UA 3437 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 14:07	DTW 16:07	20%	4%	0.3%	85%
DL 2577 Delta Flight history →	EWR 13:00	DTW 14:58	21%	4%	0.3%	82%
UA 3596 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 16:20	DTW 18:19	24%	6%	0.6%	81%
YX 3644 Republic	EWR 21:45	DTW 00:00	24%	8%	1.2%	no record
UA 3412 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 21:15	DTW 23:24	27%	9%	1.2%	75%
YX 3475 Republic	EWR 18:30	DTW 20:34	28%	8%	0.5%	no record
UA 3586 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 18:00	DTW 20:13	28%	7%	0.6%	80%
DL 2573 Delta Flight history →	EWR 16:50	DTW 18:51	35%	10%	0.5%	74%
DL 2567 Delta Flight history →	EWR 20:25	DTW 22:38	37%	15%	1.2%	57%
UA 1637 United	EWR 16:32	DTW 18:22	37%	11%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON