Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1364 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–39%.

Safest bet that day UA 1364 EWR 07:00 → FLL 10:05 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 305 EWR 20:46 → FLL 23:55 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1364 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	FLL 10:05	8%	2%	0.6%	92%
B6 1505 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 06:00	FLL 09:00	8%	3%	1.0%	82%
UA 677 United Flight history →	EWR 11:37	FLL 14:42	13%	4%	0.6%	84%
UA 2444 United Flight history →	EWR 08:35	FLL 11:40	14%	3%	0.6%	81%
UA 2151 United	EWR 08:43	FLL 11:34	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 651 United Flight history →	EWR 13:30	FLL 16:40	16%	5%	0.6%	81%
UA 1998 United	EWR 10:15	FLL 13:06	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
B6 105 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 08:00	FLL 11:04	20%	5%	0.8%	72%
UA 1897 United Flight history →	EWR 20:44	FLL 23:59	32%	11%	0.7%	65%
UA 1907 United Flight history →	EWR 17:30	FLL 20:48	32%	10%	0.7%	82%worse than usual
B6 685 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 15:28	FLL 18:30	37%	16%	0.9%	42%
B6 305 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 20:46	FLL 23:55	39%	19%	0.9%	71%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON