Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:18 am at Newark)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via DFW, leaving 12:37, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	EWR 12:37 → DFW 15:34AA 1796	2h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:28 → HOU 20:05AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	8h 28m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	7h 30m	95%	68%
American Details →	EWR 08:00 → DFW 10:51AA 1303	3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:21 → HOU 15:44AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest	8h 44m	97%	68%
American Details →	EWR 12:21 → DFW 15:10AA 1441	3h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:34 → HOU 19:53AA 3351 · flown by Envoy	8h 32m	93%	68%
American Details →	EWR 17:18 → DFW 20:18AA 813	2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:38 → HOU 23:56AA 5465 · flown by PSA	7h 38m	93%	62%
Delta Details →	EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	6h 51m	96%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON