Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 492 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 492 EWR 06:00 → IAH 08:41 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 265 EWR 19:45 → IAH 22:38 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 492 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	IAH 08:41	8%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 2438 United Flight history →	EWR 07:05	IAH 09:50	9%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 2204 United Flight history →	EWR 12:36	IAH 15:34	12%	4%	0.6%	89%
UA 332 United Flight history →	EWR 08:00	IAH 10:45	13%	3%	0.6%	87%
UA 556 United Flight history →	EWR 10:53	IAH 13:38	16%	3%	0.6%	77%
UA 2690 United Flight history →	EWR 14:12	IAH 17:10	22%	6%	0.6%	81%
UA 2815 United Flight history →	EWR 15:40	IAH 18:46	22%	9%	0.6%	69%
UA 2425 United Flight history →	EWR 20:50	IAH 23:43	26%	9%	0.7%	75%
UA 2782 United Flight history →	EWR 17:54	IAH 20:55	27%	11%	0.6%	69%
UA 265 United Flight history →	EWR 19:45	IAH 22:38	28%	10%	0.7%	72%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 12:33 → MSY 14:44UA 2468	59m New Orleans	MSY 15:43 → IAH 17:02UA 313	5h 29m	84%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON