Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2147 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 2147 EWR 06:02 → LAS 08:19 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1283 EWR 20:10 → LAS 22:34 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2147 United	EWR 06:02	LAS 08:19	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1139 United Flight history →	EWR 06:30	LAS 08:54	12%	3%	0.5%	98%worse than usual
UA 2828 United	EWR 09:41	LAS 12:15	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 446 United Flight history →	EWR 10:54	LAS 13:21	19%	5%	0.7%	82%
UA 1864 United Flight history →	EWR 11:59	LAS 14:27	19%	5%	0.7%	86%
UA 1631 United Flight history →	EWR 09:00	LAS 11:28	21%	6%	0.5%	90%worse than usual
UA 2387 United Flight history →	EWR 14:29	LAS 17:02	30%	9%	0.7%	78%
UA 1539 United	EWR 16:42	LAS 19:17	33%	12%	0.7%	no record
UA 1149 United Flight history →	EWR 16:59	LAS 19:32	33%	12%	0.7%	63%
UA 1800 United Flight history →	EWR 19:59	LAS 22:38	34%	13%	0.8%	62%
UA 1283 United	EWR 20:10	LAS 22:34	38%	13%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	1h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262	7h 16m	89%	83%
United Details →	EWR 07:41 → DEN 09:55UA 1758	1h 27m Denver	DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526	7h 43m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	1h 09m Detroit	DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334	7h 12m	90%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON