Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 788 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–50%.

Safest bet that day UA 788 EWR 06:30 → MCO 09:16 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest B6 1727 EWR 18:45 → MCO 21:42 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 788 United Flight history →	EWR 06:30	MCO 09:16	8%	3%	2.3%	96%
B6 927 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 06:02	MCO 08:45	10%	3%	3.6%	90%
UA 411 United Flight history →	EWR 07:45	MCO 10:29	11%	3%	1.3%	98%
UA 2719 United Flight history →	EWR 07:47	MCO 10:34	12%	3%	1.2%	88%
UA 486 United	EWR 09:11	MCO 11:59	13%	4%	1.2%	no record
F9 1659 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 05:57	MCO 08:44	13%	4%	2.6%	83%
UA 2396 United Flight history →	EWR 11:10	MCO 14:03	15%	5%	1.2%	87%
UA 1739 United Flight history →	EWR 10:01	MCO 12:54	16%	4%	0.9%	76%
UA 2215 United Flight history →	EWR 13:03	MCO 15:54	20%	7%	1.9%	81%
F9 2511 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 11:30	MCO 14:26	23%	8%	1.3%	80%
UA 2345 United	EWR 14:18	MCO 17:15	28%	10%	2.1%	no record
UA 1190 United Flight history →	EWR 20:30	MCO 23:32	31%	13%	2.1%	73%
UA 1268 United Flight history →	EWR 15:27	MCO 18:22	31%	14%	2.3%	79%worse than usual
UA 1213 United Flight history →	EWR 14:59	MCO 17:57	33%	13%	2.3%	74%
B6 127 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 13:32	MCO 16:16	33%	15%	2.1%	75%
UA 1900 United Flight history →	EWR 16:55	MCO 19:56	34%	16%	2.1%	77%worse than usual
UA 1932 United Flight history →	EWR 18:35	MCO 21:36	39%	18%	2.1%	56%
B6 1727 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 18:45	MCO 21:42	50%	26%	2.1%	64%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON